Making the Perfect Choice

So you know what you want in life, that’s great! That’s already an accomplishment that not everyone can claim. But what do you do next? How do you get from where you are now to where you want to be?

These situations are often called “optimization problems.” They are complicated questions with so many known and unknown variables that it is nearly impossible to determine which choice will lead to the best outcome. If it is difficult for high-end computers to solve seemingly simple tasks, like designing the optimal path between twenty points, then we as humans cannot even come close.

For example, imagine you want to become a rock star. That’s a great ambition, but how do you become one? Success requires vocal talent, style, a superb band, great songwriting, luck, and countless other factors just for a shot at it.

Unless you’re god or a quantum computer, you’re gonna have to embrace the uncertainty. o matter how well you plan, there is simply too much complexity to handle. We must accept that we cannot erase uncertainty from the world.

Uncertainty means making tough decisions “on the go,”, moving one step at a time and working with partial information. The main question is: do you make choices ahead of time, or in retrospect? Let me explain:

Deciding ahead of time means following a list of rules “no matter what.” FFor example: “I always choose the job with better pay,” “I must take two courses a year,” or “I never say no to a gig.” These rules are similar to the philosophy of deontology, which argues that some actions are prohibited and others are mandatory based on universal truths. This approach suggests that if we think hard enough, we can find truths as self-evident as 1+1=2. This is Kant’s famous “categorical rule” - “Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law.”.

Following such rules makes life easier because it reduces uncertainty. Rules limit our options, making decisions simpler. For example, a vegan never eats meat, so choosing a restaurant is easier because they only need to consider places with vegetarian or vegan options.

The drawback of deontology is the advantage of the alternative: deciding in hindsight, or “utilitarianism.” This philosophy claims the best choice is the one that maximizes wellbeing and minimizes loss.

Imagine if you could calculate every possible outcome (the holy grail for those of us who gets paralyzed during tough choices). Every decision would become a simple math problem - If option A is worth 20 points and option B is worth 18, the choice is obvious. Since uncertainty makes these calculations difficult, most of us “wing it.” We follow our intuition and then evaluate whether we made the right choice, recalibrating our instincts for next time.

However, what does it even mean to “calculate” the benefit from a choice. Can you really say that switching jobs will make you 22.5% happier or a 7.2% better person? Using math to solve life decisions is far-fetched, especially when it comes to moral choices.

Decision-making is personal, but let me tell you what I realized - the answer is not “out there”, we can’t calculate the best answer, nor can we find universal truths as our guidelines. We determine the value of each choice, so it’s up to us to make a decision.

This require of us two things:

1. Embrace the uncertainty - Even after making a choice, you may never know if it was the “right” one. We only live one life, so we cannot experience the “what if.” Even the best pros-cons list is just a prediction, not a guarantee. As Kierkegaard said, “Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards.”
2. Develop yourself - It goes beyond just trusting your gut. Being a good decision maker is a matter of character. It involves honing your thinking and maintaining a wide perspective - considering not just who you are now, but who you will be in ten weeks, months, or years. The best way to feel good about a decision is to believe it was the best choice you could have made at the time with the information you had.

So the next time you face a big decision, ask yourself:

1. Does this decision aligns with my values?
2. Even if I can’t “do the math,” do I still feel good about this choice?
3. Regardless of the outcome, will my future self support this decision?